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Entry #805: pick published

Hash verified

Zemplín Michalovce v FK Košice: Away win 45% @ 2.05 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:48.512170+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1a39ba5075ce3582adf0ba69f3fd63759dad92f5146b3d432f1fc1cea197c635
Stored hash: 810c627fd92c1c37863ae2ead463721a019413106ef59edcf79379067a7fd9a4
Recomputed: 810c627fd92c1c37863ae2ead463721a019413106ef59edcf79379067a7fd9a4

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FK Košice",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0025,
  "explanation": "Away win: 45% against a market price of 46% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals Zemplín Michalovce 1.54 – 1.83 FK Košice.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFK Košice's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+13% goals at home) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nFK Košice's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nZemplín Michalovce's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).",
  "fixture": 1551577,
  "home": "Zemplín Michalovce",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 332,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4573,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-332-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.05",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4548,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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