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Entry #806: pick published

Hash verified

Debreceni VSC v Zalaegerszegi TE: Home win 49% @ 1.78 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:50.527496+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 810c627fd92c1c37863ae2ead463721a019413106ef59edcf79379067a7fd9a4
Stored hash: 0d1bbbae21a1c713e889ee1c14c5af486cb4f7f8d6b6ce9b2d08dc17fcdf0e34
Recomputed: 0d1bbbae21a1c713e889ee1c14c5af486cb4f7f8d6b6ce9b2d08dc17fcdf0e34

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0329,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 53% (-3.3%).\nExpected goals Debreceni VSC 1.53 – 1.23 Zalaegerszegi TE.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nDebreceni VSC's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nZalaegerszegi TE's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nZalaegerszegi TE's defence (0.97× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.3%).",
  "fixture": 1560255,
  "home": "Debreceni VSC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5251,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.78",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4922,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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