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Entry #807: pick published

Hash verified

Dukla Banská Bystrica v Podbrezová: Away win 48% @ 1.97 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:52.377237+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0d1bbbae21a1c713e889ee1c14c5af486cb4f7f8d6b6ce9b2d08dc17fcdf0e34
Stored hash: cdf78d9f5e372a7b9f55d3d491008e6babb5f0a8eec12f3b563dc292f5d3d558
Recomputed: cdf78d9f5e372a7b9f55d3d491008e6babb5f0a8eec12f3b563dc292f5d3d558

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Podbrezová",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0008,
  "explanation": "Away win: 48% against a market price of 48% (-0.1%).\nExpected goals Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.29 – 1.70 Podbrezová.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±9.7%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDukla Banská Bystrica's defence (1.15× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nDukla Banská Bystrica's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nPodbrezová's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+13% goals at home) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1551575,
  "home": "Dukla Banská Bystrica",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 332,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4772,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-332-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.97",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4763,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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