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Entry #810: pick published

Hash verified

FK Crvena Zvezda v Mladost Lucani: Home win 91% @ 1.04 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:16:58.568984+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f6838bdc356f4410100dc7663acc70cd7ba222926d326cb73fda3aa92108817d
Stored hash: 67d81824b11bf27aea78999725e0d2f59f0ed1a237b1e4a7fa5c5d9e329b64bf
Recomputed: 67d81824b11bf27aea78999725e0d2f59f0ed1a237b1e4a7fa5c5d9e329b64bf

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Mladost Lucani",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0112,
  "explanation": "Home win: 91% against a market price of 92% (-1.1%).\nExpected goals FK Crvena Zvezda 2.96 – 0.79 Mladost Lucani.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 79% (uncertainty ±5.4%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFK Crvena Zvezda's attack (2.01× the league rate) adds 3.8 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nFK Crvena Zvezda's defence (0.77× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nMladost Lucani's attack (0.80× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.1%).",
  "fixture": 1553885,
  "home": "FK Crvena Zvezda",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.9225,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.04",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.9113,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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