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Entry #811: pick published

Hash verified

Odense v Brondby: Away win 43% @ 2.22 (Avoid)

Written
2026-10-18T01:17:00.605744+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash
67d81824b11bf27aea78999725e0d2f59f0ed1a237b1e4a7fa5c5d9e329b64bf
Stored hash
a95b0650b627e3e42fe31a2bb62e2da51b7a892e50707f488928b5d1caa7b55f
Recomputed
a95b0650b627e3e42fe31a2bb62e2da51b7a892e50707f488928b5d1caa7b55f
Content, exactly as hashed
{
  "away": "Brondby",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0048,
  "explanation": "Away win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Odense 1.38 – 1.70 Brondby.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (Odense 9, Brondby 7) adds 1.9 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+15% goals at home) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nOdense's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nBrondby's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1549037,
  "home": "Odense",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superliga",
  "league_api_id": 119,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4243,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-119-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.22",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4292,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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