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Entry #812: pick published

Hash verified

Orgryte IS v Gais: Away win 57% @ 1.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:08.961017+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a95b0650b627e3e42fe31a2bb62e2da51b7a892e50707f488928b5d1caa7b55f
Stored hash: 268b69bf7ce3c3fa8cf2e19602444684aa1b0a6be77f5472c7b4ec88bf131dba
Recomputed: 268b69bf7ce3c3fa8cf2e19602444684aa1b0a6be77f5472c7b4ec88bf131dba

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gais",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0212,
  "explanation": "Away win: 57% against a market price of 59% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Orgryte IS 1.02 – 1.54 Gais.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nOrgryte IS's defence (1.21× the league rate against) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nGais's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nRest days (Orgryte IS 7, Gais 8) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).",
  "fixture": 1494302,
  "home": "Orgryte IS",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5882,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.567,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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