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Entry #813: pick published

Hash verified

Malmo FF v BK Hacken: Home win 40% @ 2.51 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:11.180380+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 268b69bf7ce3c3fa8cf2e19602444684aa1b0a6be77f5472c7b4ec88bf131dba
Stored hash: a679e2c13bd6ff95f14a45682a03663dc386b896fbd56d559cc687bcf430c404
Recomputed: a679e2c13bd6ff95f14a45682a03663dc386b896fbd56d559cc687bcf430c404

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "BK Hacken",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0235,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 37% (+2.4%).\nExpected goals Malmo FF 1.75 – 1.36 BK Hacken.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nMalmo FF's attack (1.14× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nBK Hacken's attack (1.14× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nMalmo FF's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+2.4%).",
  "fixture": 1494301,
  "home": "Malmo FF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3725,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.51",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3961,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+2.4%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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