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{
  "away": "Hammarby FF",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0386,
  "explanation": "Away win: 74% against a market price of 78% (-3.9%).\nExpected goals Halmstad 0.86 – 1.97 Hammarby FF.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 62% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHammarby FF's attack (1.29× the league rate) adds 2.9 pts to away win.\nHalmstad's attack (0.72× the league rate) adds 2.1 pts to away win.\nHammarby FF's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nHalmstad's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.9%).",
  "fixture": 1494300,
  "home": "Halmstad",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.782,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.23",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7435,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}