Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #815: pick published

Hash verified

MSV Duisburg v FC Viktoria Köln: Home win 44% @ 2.04 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:14.718328+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 32d57d6335d596e470768fd12af63868c1f725448b7b3d50e096986f54bae911
Stored hash: 6c486c5ef5d32b1e905f1cff9a8c6e20ca1b9317cb365fc8f8ac61021c5540f7
Recomputed: 6c486c5ef5d32b1e905f1cff9a8c6e20ca1b9317cb365fc8f8ac61021c5540f7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Viktoria Köln",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0066,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 45% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals MSV Duisburg 1.44 – 1.16 FC Viktoria Köln.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 39% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 2.1 pts to home win.\nMSV Duisburg's attack (1.10× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nFC Viktoria Köln's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nMSV Duisburg's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1584035,
  "home": "MSV Duisburg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4483,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.04",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4417,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#814 #816

Latest entries

1416 in total