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Entry #816: pick published

Hash verified

MVV v Heracles: Home win 18% @ 6.20 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:16.634519+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6c486c5ef5d32b1e905f1cff9a8c6e20ca1b9317cb365fc8f8ac61021c5540f7
Stored hash: 656a3843b4d441a0a97fa2a14e0c0d9597d17a7e72ad793520fb839cbc4abf4d
Recomputed: 656a3843b4d441a0a97fa2a14e0c0d9597d17a7e72ad793520fb839cbc4abf4d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Heracles",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0434,
  "explanation": "Home win: 18% against a market price of 14% (+4.3%).\nExpected goals MVV 1.48 – 2.07 Heracles.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 28% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHeracles's attack (1.25× the league rate) takes 2.6 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nMVV's attack (0.84× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nMVV's defence (1.08× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1551843,
  "home": "MVV",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1383,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "6.20",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1817,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.3% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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