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Entry #817: pick published

Hash verified

Groningen v Ajax: Away win 48% @ 1.87 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:18.843446+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 656a3843b4d441a0a97fa2a14e0c0d9597d17a7e72ad793520fb839cbc4abf4d
Stored hash: 0c1b5d6eca96e725645fcfcd8b091c6df91f6be6f4e2337ba88fe688e6d2cbe2
Recomputed: 0c1b5d6eca96e725645fcfcd8b091c6df91f6be6f4e2337ba88fe688e6d2cbe2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Ajax",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.036,
  "explanation": "Away win: 48% against a market price of 51% (-3.6%).\nExpected goals Groningen 1.30 – 1.46 Ajax.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAjax's attack (1.26× the league rate) adds 2.6 pts to away win.\nAjax's defence (0.84× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nGroningen's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.6%).",
  "fixture": 1552197,
  "home": "Groningen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T14:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5115,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.87",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4756,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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