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{
  "away": "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0049,
  "explanation": "Home win: 56% against a market price of 57% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Karpaty 1.61 – 0.86 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKarpaty's attack (1.26× the league rate) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nEpitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+11% goals at home) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nKarpaty's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1565499,
  "home": "Karpaty",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5672,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.67",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5623,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}