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Entry #828: pick published

Hash verified

FC Copenhagen v Aarhus: Away win 21% @ 4.98 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:42.393935+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b7408fce388a072f6df5890dbc6a35711f9c94f4a4a27097dd299b7eb9727ffe
Stored hash: 72a09a29ac8f3e2ef94dbdd551e0b2bf77751f860b07dbec1aba66358f486293
Recomputed: 72a09a29ac8f3e2ef94dbdd551e0b2bf77751f860b07dbec1aba66358f486293

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Aarhus",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0306,
  "explanation": "Away win: 21% against a market price of 18% (+3.1%).\nExpected goals FC Copenhagen 1.49 – 1.17 Aarhus.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 28% (uncertainty ±4.5%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFC Copenhagen's attack (1.27× the league rate) takes 1.9 pts from away win.\nFC Copenhagen's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+15% goals at home) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nAarhus's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1549034,
  "home": "FC Copenhagen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superliga",
  "league_api_id": 119,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1802,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-119-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "4.98",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2109,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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