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Entry #829: pick published

Hash verified

FK Jablonec v Plzen: Away win 38% @ 2.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:45.457517+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 72a09a29ac8f3e2ef94dbdd551e0b2bf77751f860b07dbec1aba66358f486293
Stored hash: e16712f6fdabe015eabef63f40bb16c6457e5ab6061c9113c0ca488a2b731132
Recomputed: e16712f6fdabe015eabef63f40bb16c6457e5ab6061c9113c0ca488a2b731132

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Plzen",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0022,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 38% (+0.2%).\nExpected goals FK Jablonec 1.30 – 1.41 Plzen.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPlzen's attack (1.37× the league rate) adds 2.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nFK Jablonec's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nPlzen's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.2%).",
  "fixture": 1560042,
  "home": "FK Jablonec",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Czech Liga",
  "league_api_id": 345,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3795,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-345-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3817,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.2%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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