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Entry #830: pick published

Hash verified

Sporting Cristal v Comerciantes Unidos: Home win 74% @ 1.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:48.601387+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e16712f6fdabe015eabef63f40bb16c6457e5ab6061c9113c0ca488a2b731132
Stored hash: 2ef4efcd23640d83dd21cc5c7f7bb613ccbc48f5f3c44b98742432e2bfd644f5
Recomputed: 2ef4efcd23640d83dd21cc5c7f7bb613ccbc48f5f3c44b98742432e2bfd644f5

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Comerciantes Unidos",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0283,
  "explanation": "Home win: 74% against a market price of 77% (-2.8%).\nExpected goals Sporting Cristal 2.29 – 0.98 Comerciantes Unidos.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 66% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+54% goals at home) adds 5.4 pts to home win.\nSporting Cristal's attack (1.28× the league rate) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nComerciantes Unidos's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nComerciantes Unidos's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.8%).",
  "fixture": 1549517,
  "home": "Sporting Cristal",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7694,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.24",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7411,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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