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Entry #831: pick published

Hash verified

Kisvarda FC v Ferencvarosi TC: Away win 59% @ 1.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:51.536793+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2ef4efcd23640d83dd21cc5c7f7bb613ccbc48f5f3c44b98742432e2bfd644f5
Stored hash: c3df921b32cde77512df62862b4bed9fce0e2030d1e7ecbf0c8b6e02a50cad0d
Recomputed: c3df921b32cde77512df62862b4bed9fce0e2030d1e7ecbf0c8b6e02a50cad0d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Ferencvarosi TC",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0561,
  "explanation": "Away win: 59% against a market price of 65% (-5.6%).\nExpected goals Kisvarda FC 0.96 – 1.40 Ferencvarosi TC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFerencvarosi TC's attack (1.18× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nFerencvarosi TC's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nKisvarda FC's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-5.6%).",
  "fixture": 1560256,
  "home": "Kisvarda FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6482,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.592,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-5.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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