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Entry #832: pick published

Hash verified

Delfin SC v Manta FC: Home win 37% @ 2.43 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:59.519688+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c3df921b32cde77512df62862b4bed9fce0e2030d1e7ecbf0c8b6e02a50cad0d
Stored hash: 2ef71ffddd32adbe535e64e8040fba44e1303a25f65169cb4f8610a631e678d4
Recomputed: 2ef71ffddd32adbe535e64e8040fba44e1303a25f65169cb4f8610a631e678d4

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Manta FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0001,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 37% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Delfin SC 1.00 – 0.90 Manta FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDelfin SC's attack (0.77× the league rate) takes 3.1 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nManta FC's attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Delfin SC 9, Manta FC 8) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1639824,
  "home": "Delfin SC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Pro",
  "league_api_id": 242,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3742,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-242-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.43",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3742,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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