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Entry #833: pick published

Hash verified

Železničar Pančevo v FK Partizan: Home win 40% @ 2.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:02.690543+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2ef71ffddd32adbe535e64e8040fba44e1303a25f65169cb4f8610a631e678d4
Stored hash: d8a863148aceef1757e53ae1e4116c8914fcc3082ce3c2ee271d63a23471f61c
Recomputed: d8a863148aceef1757e53ae1e4116c8914fcc3082ce3c2ee271d63a23471f61c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FK Partizan",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0048,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-0.5%).\nExpected goals Železničar Pančevo 1.51 – 1.34 FK Partizan.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFK Partizan's attack (1.43× the league rate) takes 2.5 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nŽelezničar Pančevo's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nŽelezničar Pančevo's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1553891,
  "home": "Železničar Pančevo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4083,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.24",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4035,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#832 #834

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