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Entry #834: pick published

Hash verified

ML Vitebsk v Neman: Home win 53% @ 1.75 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:07.022069+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: d8a863148aceef1757e53ae1e4116c8914fcc3082ce3c2ee271d63a23471f61c
Stored hash: c381412b3054654d8e45a1d68f3e82e72b17382ec8b0a9c9b4729cb0a6354595
Recomputed: c381412b3054654d8e45a1d68f3e82e72b17382ec8b0a9c9b4729cb0a6354595

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Neman",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.015,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 54% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals ML Vitebsk 1.19 – 0.67 Neman.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nML Vitebsk's attack (1.42× the league rate) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nNeman's defence (0.78× the league rate against) takes 2.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nML Vitebsk's defence (0.72× the league rate against) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1526005,
  "home": "ML Vitebsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 116,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5415,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-116-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.75",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5265,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#833 #835

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