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Entry #835: pick published

Hash verified

Houston Dash W v Orlando Pride W: Home win 35% @ 2.79 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:08.349966+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c381412b3054654d8e45a1d68f3e82e72b17382ec8b0a9c9b4729cb0a6354595
Stored hash: c70989328a156deb26d0c4a6459cc3f7bc3c471d76f2489c617c13bc037dd45f
Recomputed: c70989328a156deb26d0c4a6459cc3f7bc3c471d76f2489c617c13bc037dd45f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Orlando Pride W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0345,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 32% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Houston Dash W 1.43 – 1.38 Orlando Pride W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 43% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nHouston Dash W's attack (0.92× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nHouston Dash W's defence (1.04× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1508577,
  "home": "Houston Dash W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "NWSL Women",
  "league_api_id": 254,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3172,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-254-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.79",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3517,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#834 #836

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