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Entry #836: pick published

Hash verified

Tromso v KFUM Oslo: Home win 61% @ 1.51 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:10.227971+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c70989328a156deb26d0c4a6459cc3f7bc3c471d76f2489c617c13bc037dd45f
Stored hash: 6cba591ad97731e41ec4d64d1ef5dc83d39343e005cf1e1c0f798291e1a02fb9
Recomputed: 6cba591ad97731e41ec4d64d1ef5dc83d39343e005cf1e1c0f798291e1a02fb9

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "KFUM Oslo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0277,
  "explanation": "Home win: 61% against a market price of 63% (-2.8%).\nExpected goals Tromso 1.82 – 1.05 KFUM Oslo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 3.5 pts to home win.\nTromso's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nKFUM Oslo's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTromso's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.8%).",
  "fixture": 1494785,
  "home": "Tromso",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6331,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.51",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6054,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#835 #837

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