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Entry #837: pick published

Hash verified

SV Meppen v Havelse: Home win 55% @ 1.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:18:12.071663+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6cba591ad97731e41ec4d64d1ef5dc83d39343e005cf1e1c0f798291e1a02fb9
Stored hash: a9f39db44bb54e4491b7aac0ce4591833ec37271ee83d060369a6bffc1a1b15c
Recomputed: a9f39db44bb54e4491b7aac0ce4591833ec37271ee83d060369a6bffc1a1b15c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Havelse",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0225,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals SV Meppen 1.77 – 1.27 Havelse.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHavelse's defence (1.26× the league rate against) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).",
  "fixture": 1584041,
  "home": "SV Meppen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5707,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5481,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#836 #838

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