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Entry #827: pick published

Hash verified

Žilina v Dunajska Streda: Away win 44% @ 2.15 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:39.487534+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 89ffa2e3cb479d17811f72a8cfad9b1056b37a928580e20b3b5df94d82211693
Stored hash: b7408fce388a072f6df5890dbc6a35711f9c94f4a4a27097dd299b7eb9727ffe
Recomputed: b7408fce388a072f6df5890dbc6a35711f9c94f4a4a27097dd299b7eb9727ffe

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Dunajska Streda",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0014,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 44% (+0.1%).\nExpected goals Žilina 1.60 – 1.85 Dunajska Streda.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDunajska Streda's attack (1.32× the league rate) adds 2.2 pts to away win.\nŽilina's attack (1.29× the league rate) takes 1.7 pts from away win.\nDunajska Streda's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+13% goals at home) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1551580,
  "home": "Žilina",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 332,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4363,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-332-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "2.15",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4377,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#826 #828

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