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Entry #826: pick published

Hash verified

İstanbulspor v Antalyaspor: Away win 44% @ 2.00 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:37.968325+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3a3d200685ad8f62a30d8b9204d54dadbddf6349a344e615f6a8d3500edd2422
Stored hash: 89ffa2e3cb479d17811f72a8cfad9b1056b37a928580e20b3b5df94d82211693
Recomputed: 89ffa2e3cb479d17811f72a8cfad9b1056b37a928580e20b3b5df94d82211693

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Antalyaspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0288,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 46% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals İstanbulspor 1.90 – 1.30 Antalyaspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 26% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nAntalyaspor's defence (1.20× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from away win.\nİstanbulspor's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).",
  "fixture": 1585793,
  "home": "İstanbulspor",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4642,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.00",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4353,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#825 #827

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