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Entry #825: pick published

Hash verified

NK Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb: Away win 67% @ 1.35 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:36.394654+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f7beef62262a22c7b26965e9bf949234e7d57a9548acda6dcf3613fb96510d5d
Stored hash: 3a3d200685ad8f62a30d8b9204d54dadbddf6349a344e615f6a8d3500edd2422
Recomputed: 3a3d200685ad8f62a30d8b9204d54dadbddf6349a344e615f6a8d3500edd2422

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Dinamo Zagreb",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0307,
  "explanation": "Away win: 67% against a market price of 70% (-3.1%).\nExpected goals NK Slaven Belupo 1.41 – 2.18 Dinamo Zagreb.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±8.6%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nDinamo Zagreb's attack (1.60× the league rate) adds 4.1 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+32% goals at home) takes 1.6 pts from away win.\nDinamo Zagreb's defence (0.83× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nNK Slaven Belupo's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.1%).",
  "fixture": 1548546,
  "home": "NK Slaven Belupo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7037,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.35",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.673,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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