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Entry #824: pick published

Hash verified

Spartak Moscow v Rubin: Home win 63% @ 1.45 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T01:17:34.988194+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: cac7f06fa2da5fd264b1f9b25b849dcb45c4172e8679ad1a7772c9eb86a81d34
Stored hash: f7beef62262a22c7b26965e9bf949234e7d57a9548acda6dcf3613fb96510d5d
Recomputed: f7beef62262a22c7b26965e9bf949234e7d57a9548acda6dcf3613fb96510d5d

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Rubin",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0434,
  "explanation": "Home win: 63% against a market price of 68% (-4.3%).\nExpected goals Spartak Moscow 1.49 – 1.00 Rubin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±8.6%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSpartak Moscow's attack (1.23× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nRest days (Spartak Moscow 3, Rubin 3) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nRubin's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.3%).",
  "fixture": 1561417,
  "home": "Spartak Moscow",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.675,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v3)",
  "odds_taken": "1.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6316,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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