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{
  "away": "Korona Kielce",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0251,
  "explanation": "Home win: 64% against a market price of 66% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals Lech Poznan 1.95 – 1.03 Korona Kielce.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nLech Poznan's attack (1.20× the league rate) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (Lech Poznan 3, Korona Kielce 7) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nKorona Kielce's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1553194,
  "home": "Lech Poznan",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6617,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.44",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6367,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}