Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets prediction

12:00

Sat 31 Oct, 12:00 Hristo Bonev

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 3.5Under 3.5 goals

Us 80%Books 78% Best odds 1.25 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

14%

Bookmakers 11%

Draw

26%

Bookmakers 23%

Away win

61%

Bookmakers 67%

Us 61%Bookmakers 67% Odds too short Uncertainty ±2.0%

Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: no profit at the best price (-12.0% expected per unit).

Away win: 61% against a market price of 67% (-5.9%).

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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets preview

Lokomotiv Plovdiv host Ludogorets in the First League on Saturday 31 October at 12:00 at Hristo Bonev.

Our model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv 14%, the draw 26% and Ludogorets 61%; the bookmakers' prices said 11%, 23% and 67%.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (3 scored, 4 conceded).

Ludogorets have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from their last 5 (10 scored, 5 conceded).

In their last 6 meetings Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 1, Ludogorets won 2 and 3 were drawn, with 1.2 goals a game.

Another call we like: Under 3.5 goals (Goals O/U 3.5) at 80%.

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