Lille vs Lens prediction
Fri 30 Oct, 20:05
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 80%Books 80% Best odds 1.23 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
40%
Bookmakers 40%
Draw
25%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 33%
Us 40%Bookmakers 40%
Fair price
Uncertainty ±2.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 40% against a market price of 40% (-0.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Lille vs Lens preview
Lille host Lens in the Ligue 1 on Friday 30 October at 20:05 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Our model gives Lille 40%, the draw 25% and Lens 35%; the bookmakers' prices said 40%, 26% and 33%.
Lille have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (5 scored, 9 conceded).
Lens have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from their last 5 (7 scored, 8 conceded).
In their last 4 meetings Lille won 3, Lens won 1 and 0 were drawn, with 2.2 goals a game.
Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 80%.
More Ligue 1 predictions
All Ligue 1 matches- Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain win 79% @ 1.26
Form and head-to-head
All competitionsLille
DLDLW
- 25 Oct · A v Monaco 1–1 (xG 0.71–2.24)
- 21 Oct · H v Galatasaray 2–4 (xG 1.92–1.66)
- 17 Oct · H v Stade Brestois 29 1–1 (xG 2.25–0.84)
- 13 Oct · A v Arsenal 0–3 (xG 0.30–1.70)
- 10 Oct · H v Le Havre 1–0 (xG 1.35–1.34)
Lens
WLWLW
- 24 Oct · H v Paris FC 2–1 (xG 1.10–0.44)
- 21 Oct · A v Club Brugge KV 0–3 (xG 2.10–2.68)
- 17 Oct · A v Estac Troyes 3–1 (xG 1.45–1.27)
- 13 Oct · H v Sporting CP 0–2 (xG 1.72–1.67)
- 9 Oct · H v Lyon 2–1 (xG 1.34–1.04)
Head-to-head
Lille 3 · draws 0 · Lens 1, 2.3 goals a game
- 4 Apr 2026 · Lille 3–0 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 20 Sep 2025 · Lens 3–0 Lille (Ligue 1)
- 30 Mar 2025 · Lille 1–0 Lens (Ligue 1)
- 26 Oct 2024 · Lens 0–2 Lille (Ligue 1)