Apollon Limassol vs Pafos prediction

15:00

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00 Alphamega Stadium

No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge

Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals

Us 75%Books 75% Best odds 1.30 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win

45%

Bookmakers 43%

Draw

26%

Bookmakers 27%

Away win

29%

Bookmakers 30%

Us 45%Bookmakers 43% Fair price Uncertainty ±2.1%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.1% alone is not enough).

Home win: 45% against a market price of 43% (+2.1%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Apollon Limassol vs Pafos preview

Apollon Limassol host Pafos in the 1. Division on Saturday 31 October at 15:00 at Alphamega Stadium.

Our model gives Apollon Limassol 45%, the draw 26% and Pafos 29%; the bookmakers' prices said 43%, 27% and 30%.

Apollon Limassol have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats from their last 5 (14 scored, 5 conceded).

Pafos have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat from their last 5 (5 scored, 5 conceded).

In their last 6 meetings Apollon Limassol won 3, Pafos won 2 and 1 was drawn, with 2.3 goals a game.

Another call we like: Over 1.5 goals (Goals O/U 1.5) at 75%.

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