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Entry #17: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Faisaly FC v Al Kholood: Away win 45% @ 2.07 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-15T13:14:38.568993+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b1cdbcc0a4017b77340483d5efc821c673660456e34408322f2b531a0654d5d6
Stored hash: 6874d14094f18c8f5c51d897f28c6a1e7cce83813cbff1b40719cd2f9a6c0116
Recomputed: 6874d14094f18c8f5c51d897f28c6a1e7cce83813cbff1b40719cd2f9a6c0116

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al Kholood",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0005,
  "explanation": "Away win: 45% against a market price of 45% (-0.0%).\nExpected goals Al-Faisaly FC 1.09 – 1.53 Al Kholood.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±13.7%), so it carries 9% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Faisaly FC's attack (0.74× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nAl Kholood's attack (1.10× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1603046,
  "home": "Al-Faisaly FC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-15T13:40:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4511,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.07",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4506,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#16 #18

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