Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #225: pick published

Hash verified

Hellas Verona v Catanzaro: Home win 51% @ 1.76 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T18:21:18.148909+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f249dc5710aff3f49c3ad4e968997c330cc0cfb19a9486e0f82826840090ce8f
Stored hash: 377f3c1cca3d17b0a398d5896b53da92073beb2968d4888ae24674d0a817d0a1
Recomputed: 377f3c1cca3d17b0a398d5896b53da92073beb2968d4888ae24674d0a817d0a1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Catanzaro",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0291,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 54% (-2.9%).\nExpected goals Hellas Verona 1.52 – 1.40 Catanzaro.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nHellas Verona missing 2.9 regular starters; Catanzaro missing 0.9 regular starters takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nHellas Verona's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nCatanzaro's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.9%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1, Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 51% (-2.1 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 22% → 23% (+1.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1601562,
  "home": "Hellas Verona",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5421,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.76",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.513,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.9%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Catanzaro 3-4-2-1, Hellas Verona 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 51% (-2.1 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (+0.7 pts); Away win 22% → 23% (+1.4 pts)."
}

#224 #226

Latest entries

245 in total