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{
  "away": "1. FC Köln",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0157,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 52% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Eintracht Frankfurt 1.78 – 1.50 1. FC Köln.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±8.0%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nEintracht Frankfurt missing 2.9 regular starters; 1. FC Köln missing 1.6 regular starters takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nEintracht Frankfurt's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\n1. FC Köln's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2, 1. FC Köln 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 50% (-1.1 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1575187,
  "home": "Eintracht Frankfurt",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 78,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5168,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-78-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.87",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5011,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2, 1. FC Köln 3-4-2-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 50% (-1.1 pts); Away win 26% → 27% (+1.3 pts)."
}