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Entry #223: pick published

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Dinamo Bucuresti v FC Botosani: Home win 65% @ 1.43 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:22.085894+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 870684cf875a05ed4d6df4946ace4a4b84050ace0824092ad61c5549bdad40bd
Stored hash: 543b0071cfb81a61f8f143a0415572001670e4f9495c40aabc4e6b48c9dafee6
Recomputed: 543b0071cfb81a61f8f143a0415572001670e4f9495c40aabc4e6b48c9dafee6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Botosani",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0095,
  "explanation": "Home win: 65% against a market price of 66% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Dinamo Bucuresti 1.92 – 0.92 FC Botosani.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 61% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+47% goals at home) adds 2.9 pts to home win.\nDinamo Bucuresti's attack (1.17× the league rate) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nDinamo Bucuresti's defence (0.83× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nDinamo Bucuresti missing 0.6 regular starters; FC Botosani missing 2.1 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 65% likely, uncertainty only ±1.6%, market agrees.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Botosani 4-3-3, Dinamo Bucuresti 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 65% → 65% (+0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Banker.",
  "fixture": 1565271,
  "home": "Dinamo Bucuresti",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6632,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.43",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.6537,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "65% likely, uncertainty only ±1.6%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Botosani 4-3-3, Dinamo Bucuresti 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 65% → 65% (+0.8 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Banker."
}

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