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Entry #222: pick published

Hash verified

Reims v Dijon: Home win 52% @ 1.77 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:20.829464+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 22ca4898eb3ca728c8162cc33cfbca8a1cd9b3995112410fe4b28b3d8e174201
Stored hash: 870684cf875a05ed4d6df4946ace4a4b84050ace0824092ad61c5549bdad40bd
Recomputed: 870684cf875a05ed4d6df4946ace4a4b84050ace0824092ad61c5549bdad40bd

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Dijon",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0148,
  "explanation": "Home win: 52% against a market price of 54% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Reims 1.66 – 1.15 Dijon.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±9.0%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nReims's attack (1.15× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nRest days (Reims 6, Dijon 4) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nDijon's attack (1.09× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Dijon 4-1-3-2, Reims 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 52% (-1.1 pts); Away win 22% → 23% (+0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 55% → 54%; Away win 21% → 22%.",
  "fixture": 1552502,
  "home": "Reims",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.536,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.77",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5212,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Dijon 4-1-3-2, Reims 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 52% (-1.1 pts); Away win 22% → 23% (+0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 55% → 54%; Away win 21% → 22%."
}

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