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Entry #221: pick published

Hash verified

Guingamp v PAU: Home win 43% @ 2.19 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:18.082612+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a6233b91a72ebcada82baafd0d116f333b9b414c9c10e0d5c9bf7e3ebf2e10c6
Stored hash: 22ca4898eb3ca728c8162cc33cfbca8a1cd9b3995112410fe4b28b3d8e174201
Recomputed: 22ca4898eb3ca728c8162cc33cfbca8a1cd9b3995112410fe4b28b3d8e174201

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "PAU",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0045,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (+0.4%).\nExpected goals Guingamp 1.65 – 1.26 PAU.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPAU's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nGuingamp missing 3.5 regular starters; PAU missing 1.8 regular starters adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nGuingamp's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.4%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Guingamp 4-1-4-1, PAU 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 43% (+1.3 pts); Away win 31% → 30% (-1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1552497,
  "home": "Guingamp",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4287,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.19",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4332,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Guingamp 4-1-4-1, PAU 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 42% → 43% (+1.3 pts); Away win 31% → 30% (-1.2 pts)."
}

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