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Entry #220: pick published

Hash verified

Grenoble v Boulogne: Away win 35% @ 2.60 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:16.298126+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e512aa80928122f84bd27dabbd686bad98242b5567ccaa17fcfcdae67dd35e5e
Stored hash: a6233b91a72ebcada82baafd0d116f333b9b414c9c10e0d5c9bf7e3ebf2e10c6
Recomputed: a6233b91a72ebcada82baafd0d116f333b9b414c9c10e0d5c9bf7e3ebf2e10c6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Boulogne",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0068,
  "explanation": "Away win: 35% against a market price of 36% (-0.7%).\nExpected goals Grenoble 1.11 – 1.06 Boulogne.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBoulogne's attack (0.85× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nGrenoble's attack (0.89× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nGrenoble missing 2.5 regular starters; Boulogne missing 2.0 regular starters adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Boulogne 3-1-4-2, Grenoble 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 34% (-0.6 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1552496,
  "home": "Grenoble",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3572,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.60",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3504,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Boulogne 3-1-4-2, Grenoble 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 34% (-0.6 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}

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