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Entry #219: pick published

Hash verified

Annecy v Nancy: Away win 38% @ 2.36 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:14.659893+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: de3bb5e5d4be15b81c8414d66938c3735a7e819f4ac0785d43255e408d72264c
Stored hash: e512aa80928122f84bd27dabbd686bad98242b5567ccaa17fcfcdae67dd35e5e
Recomputed: e512aa80928122f84bd27dabbd686bad98242b5567ccaa17fcfcdae67dd35e5e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Nancy",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0135,
  "explanation": "Away win: 38% against a market price of 40% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals Annecy 1.43 – 1.28 Nancy.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±8.4%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAnnecy missing 1.9 regular starters; Nancy missing 1.3 regular starters adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nNancy's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nAnnecy's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.3 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).\nWhat changed since v5:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Annecy 4-2-3-1, Nancy 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 33% (-1.6 pts); Away win 37% → 38% (+1.5 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1552495,
  "home": "Annecy",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 2",
  "league_api_id": 62,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3969,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-62-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.36",
  "prediction_version": 6,
  "probability": 0.3834,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v5:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Annecy 4-2-3-1, Nancy 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 33% (-1.6 pts); Away win 37% → 38% (+1.5 pts).\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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