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Entry #218: pick published

Hash verified

Heerenveen v Excelsior: Home win 57% @ 1.57 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:13.440435+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: dc62fa05ba3f28f848e48abb685701a5c405eae5fcafd5dc59ec2cc179dcfeba
Stored hash: de3bb5e5d4be15b81c8414d66938c3735a7e819f4ac0785d43255e408d72264c
Recomputed: de3bb5e5d4be15b81c8414d66938c3735a7e819f4ac0785d43255e408d72264c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Excelsior",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0438,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 61% (-4.4%).\nExpected goals Heerenveen 1.52 – 1.25 Excelsior.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nHeerenveen missing 1.3 regular starters: D. Proper takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.4%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Excelsior 4-3-3, Heerenveen 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 57% (+1.9 pts); Draw 23% → 22% (-0.9 pts); Away win 22% → 21% (-0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 60% → 61%; Draw 22% → 21%.\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1552189,
  "home": "Heerenveen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6122,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.57",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5684,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Excelsior 4-3-3, Heerenveen 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 57% (+1.9 pts); Draw 23% → 22% (-0.9 pts); Away win 22% → 21% (-0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 60% → 61%; Draw 22% → 21%.\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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