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Entry #217: pick published

Hash verified

VVV Venlo v Jong AZ: Home win 46% @ 1.94 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:11.372558+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1a02e45136263e8201d024f2064c0472fb2ae2cce515313f4636d1be20d13459
Stored hash: dc62fa05ba3f28f848e48abb685701a5c405eae5fcafd5dc59ec2cc179dcfeba
Recomputed: dc62fa05ba3f28f848e48abb685701a5c405eae5fcafd5dc59ec2cc179dcfeba

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Jong AZ",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0249,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 49% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals VVV Venlo 1.83 – 1.63 Jong AZ.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 41% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.\nVVV Venlo missing 3.3 regular starters; Jong AZ missing 2.0 regular starters takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nJong AZ's defence (1.09× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nJong AZ's attack (1.06× the league rate) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: VVV Venlo 4-3-3, Jong AZ 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 46% (-2.5 pts); Away win 29% → 31% (+2.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1551840,
  "home": "VVV Venlo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4895,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.94",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4645,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: VVV Venlo 4-3-3, Jong AZ 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 49% → 46% (-2.5 pts); Away win 29% → 31% (+2.1 pts)."
}

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