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{
  "combined_odds": "20.89",
  "combined_probability": 0.059452,
  "ev": 0.2419,
  "explanation": "Long shot slip for Fri 16 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 20.89. By our numbers the fair price is 16.82, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 5.95% (about 1 in 17; likely range 5.39%–6.56%). The market's own prices imply 3.94%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 34.4%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +24% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be +6%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 2.7 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.15 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. FC Eindhoven v Vitesse: Home win @ 3.22 — our 35% vs the market's 29% (+6.0%), EV +11%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.0% too long by the market.\n2. Leganes v Cordoba: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.12 — our 49% vs the market's 44% (+4.4%), EV +3%. Value: our 49% beats the market's 44%.\n3. Burnley v Wolves: Home win @ 3.06 — our 35% vs the market's 31% (+4.2%), EV +8%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.2% too long by the market.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 3% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 17; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v7:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: NAC Breda 4-2-3-1, Helmond Sport 4-2-3-1.\nRemoved: Helmond Sport v NAC Breda Home win — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: FC Eindhoven v Vitesse Home win @ 3.22 (Upset Watch).\nCombined odds 33.02 → 20.89; chance 4.44% → 5.95%; EV +47% → +24%.",
  "fair_odds": "16.82",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1551838,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "Eerste Divisie",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.2862,
      "match": "FC Eindhoven v Vitesse",
      "odds": "3.22",
      "probability": 0.346,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1569978,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Segunda División",
      "market": "OU25",
      "market_probability": 0.4435,
      "match": "Leganes v Cordoba",
      "odds": "2.12",
      "probability": 0.4877,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1563205,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T19:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "Championship",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.3106,
      "match": "Burnley v Wolves",
      "odds": "3.06",
      "probability": 0.3523,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 204,
  "slate": "2026-10-16",
  "slip": 13,
  "stake_units": 0.15,
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "longshot",
  "variant_name": "Long shot",
  "version": 8,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v7:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: NAC Breda 4-2-3-1, Helmond Sport 4-2-3-1.\nRemoved: Helmond Sport v NAC Breda Home win — replaced by a stronger leg.\nAdded: FC Eindhoven v Vitesse Home win @ 3.22 (Upset Watch).\nCombined odds 33.02 → 20.89; chance 4.44% → 5.95%; EV +47% → +24%."
}