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Entry #215: pick published

Hash verified

Helmond Sport v NAC Breda: Home win 22% @ 5.09 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:08.751581+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fd3341243b8e23ef6b8c43c6fe2f8cba5bd1668fe012dd30cd73ba5b1f470b59
Stored hash: 2e18f2f85f74c3b33f4a45a822fc00f6109c42794480c09b156978fca99e4199
Recomputed: 2e18f2f85f74c3b33f4a45a822fc00f6109c42794480c09b156978fca99e4199

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "NAC Breda",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0441,
  "explanation": "Home win: 22% against a market price of 17% (+4.4%).\nExpected goals Helmond Sport 1.49 – 1.74 NAC Breda.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±6.8%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nHelmond Sport missing 3.0 regular starters; NAC Breda missing 0.6 regular starters takes 1.7 pts from home win.\nHelmond Sport's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nNAC Breda's attack (1.05× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: NAC Breda 4-2-3-1, Helmond Sport 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 26% → 22% (-4.0 pts); Away win 53% → 57% (+4.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 17% → 17%; Away win 64% → 63%.",
  "fixture": 1551839,
  "home": "Helmond Sport",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1744,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "5.09",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2185,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: NAC Breda 4-2-3-1, Helmond Sport 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 26% → 22% (-4.0 pts); Away win 53% → 57% (+4.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 17% → 17%; Away win 64% → 63%."
}

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