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Entry #214: pick published

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FC Eindhoven v Vitesse: Home win 35% @ 3.22 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:08.286557+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 9e209c03323183c8e86c69fb408000f2867770c078d0cb045cf66dae758270ef
Stored hash: fd3341243b8e23ef6b8c43c6fe2f8cba5bd1668fe012dd30cd73ba5b1f470b59
Recomputed: fd3341243b8e23ef6b8c43c6fe2f8cba5bd1668fe012dd30cd73ba5b1f470b59

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Vitesse",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0599,
  "explanation": "Home win: 35% against a market price of 29% (+6.0%).\nExpected goals FC Eindhoven 1.89 – 1.44 Vitesse.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nFC Eindhoven missing 1.4 regular starters; Vitesse missing 3.4 regular starters adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nFC Eindhoven's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nFC Eindhoven's defence (1.09× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 6.0% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Vitesse 4-2-3-1, FC Eindhoven 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 35% (+2.6 pts); Away win 44% → 42% (-2.7 pts).",
  "fixture": 1551838,
  "home": "FC Eindhoven",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2862,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.22",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.346,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 6.0% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Vitesse 4-2-3-1, FC Eindhoven 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 32% → 35% (+2.6 pts); Away win 44% → 42% (-2.7 pts)."
}

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