Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #213: pick published

Hash verified

Sport Huancayo v Cusco: Home win 55% @ 1.67 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:41:05.358539+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1d76d31b30d6ae02d43b1e53c90f6eed51c110253c454bd3048ccfd858a3475b
Stored hash: 9e209c03323183c8e86c69fb408000f2867770c078d0cb045cf66dae758270ef
Recomputed: 9e209c03323183c8e86c69fb408000f2867770c078d0cb045cf66dae758270ef

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Cusco",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0231,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 57% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Sport Huancayo 1.68 – 1.14 Cusco.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±6.6%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+52% goals at home) adds 5.0 pts to home win.\nSport Huancayo missing 1.7 regular starters; Cusco missing 2.7 regular starters adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nCusco's attack (1.11× the league rate) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nCusco's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Cusco 4-1-4-1, Sport Huancayo 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 55% (+1.5 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.5 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1549516,
  "home": "Sport Huancayo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5693,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.67",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5461,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Cusco 4-1-4-1, Sport Huancayo 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 53% → 55% (+1.5 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.5 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

#212 #214

Latest entries

245 in total