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{
  "away": "FC OSS",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0352,
  "explanation": "Away win: 25% against a market price of 21% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Den Bosch 1.69 – 1.41 FC OSS.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±6.1%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) takes 2.2 pts from away win.\nFC OSS's attack (0.88× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nDen Bosch missing 2.0 regular starters; FC OSS missing 0.8 regular starters adds 1.2 pts to away win.\nDen Bosch's attack (0.96× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC OSS 4-3-3, Den Bosch 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 53% (-1.2 pts); Away win 24% → 25% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 56% → 58%; Away win 22% → 21%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch.",
  "fixture": 1551837,
  "home": "Den Bosch",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2107,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "4.28",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.2459,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC OSS 4-3-3, Den Bosch 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 53% (-1.2 pts); Away win 24% → 25% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 56% → 58%; Away win 22% → 21%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.\nTag changed from Avoid to Upset Watch."
}