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Entry #211: pick published

Hash verified

Hellas Verona v Catanzaro: Home win 53% @ 1.76 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:30:41.875993+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ae39085f55aa8a2a29e951b048f627dff12040a269506cb92aa8372d51c05687
Stored hash: 086ac8d46fc8cb6d2a0ef77b3dbd1af115068c87218d4ea6e14a129429ee0137
Recomputed: 086ac8d46fc8cb6d2a0ef77b3dbd1af115068c87218d4ea6e14a129429ee0137

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Catanzaro",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0086,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 54% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Hellas Verona 1.88 – 1.35 Catanzaro.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.3%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nHellas Verona's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nCatanzaro's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nRest days (Hellas Verona 5, Catanzaro 5) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.9%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 53% (+2.1 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.7 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 52% → 54%; Draw 25% → 25%; Away win 22% → 21%.",
  "fixture": 1601562,
  "home": "Hellas Verona",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5421,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.76",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5336,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 53% (+2.1 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.7 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.3 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 52% → 54%; Draw 25% → 25%; Away win 22% → 21%."
}

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