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Entry #210: pick published

Hash verified

ABB v Real Potosí: Away win 39% @ 2.43 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:23:14.215045+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 94d28ae3f8b580abf0e17403a68aa9da361e06cc3580b41fbfe3eeb0b46d6241
Stored hash: ae39085f55aa8a2a29e951b048f627dff12040a269506cb92aa8372d51c05687
Recomputed: ae39085f55aa8a2a29e951b048f627dff12040a269506cb92aa8372d51c05687

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Real Potosí",
  "bookmakers": 8,
  "edge": 0.0048,
  "explanation": "Away win: 39% against a market price of 38% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals ABB 1.42 – 1.63 Real Potosí.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nReal Potosí's defence (0.64× the league rate against) adds 2.3 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+59% goals at home) takes 2.1 pts from away win.\nABB's defence (1.26× the league rate against) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nRest days (ABB 6, Real Potosí 5) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).\nWhat changed since v4:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 41% → 36%, draw 25% → 26%, away 33% → 38%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 35% (-4.3 pts); Away win 35% → 39% (+3.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 41% → 36%; Draw 25% → 26%; Away win 33% → 38%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win.",
  "fixture": 1619328,
  "home": "ABB",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3823,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.43",
  "prediction_version": 5,
  "probability": 0.387,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "event: odds moved",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v4:\nTriggered by Match result market moved: home 41% → 36%, draw 25% → 26%, away 33% → 38%.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 35% (-4.3 pts); Away win 35% → 39% (+3.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 41% → 36%; Draw 25% → 26%; Away win 33% → 38%.\nPick changed from Home win to Away win."
}

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