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Entry #209: pick published

Hash verified

Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg: Home win 71% @ 1.26 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-16T17:21:02.547199+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: a20d886c3418c1676cd3c1eadf467d1bb463a7395eb0fc7d45ba43710485d260
Stored hash: 94d28ae3f8b580abf0e17403a68aa9da361e06cc3580b41fbfe3eeb0b46d6241
Recomputed: 94d28ae3f8b580abf0e17403a68aa9da361e06cc3580b41fbfe3eeb0b46d6241

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "TSV Hartberg",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.0519,
  "explanation": "Home win: 71% against a market price of 76% (-5.2%).\nExpected goals Rapid Vienna 1.79 – 1.04 TSV Hartberg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nRest days (Rapid Vienna 5, TSV Hartberg 5) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nRapid Vienna's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nRapid Vienna's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-5.2%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: TSV Hartberg 5-3-2, Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 66% → 71% (+5.3 pts); Draw 20% → 17% (-2.5 pts); Away win 14% → 12% (-2.8 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1561945,
  "home": "Rapid Vienna",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7642,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.26",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.7123,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-5.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: TSV Hartberg 5-3-2, Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 66% → 71% (+5.3 pts); Draw 20% → 17% (-2.5 pts); Away win 14% → 12% (-2.8 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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