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{
  "away": "Cerro Largo",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": -0.01,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 41% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Cerro 1.11 – 1.02 Cerro Largo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nCerro's attack (0.87× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nCerro Largo's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nCerro's defence (1.07× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 40% (+1.2 pts); Away win 32% → 30% (-1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 41%; Away win 31% → 29%.",
  "fixture": 1644698,
  "home": "Cerro",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T22:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4079,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.26",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3978,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 40% (+1.2 pts); Away win 32% → 30% (-1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 41%; Away win 31% → 29%."
}