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{
  "away": "WSPG Wels",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0073,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 41% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Austria Vienna (Am) 1.64 – 1.34 WSPG Wels.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Austria Vienna (Am) 7, WSPG Wels 6) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nWSPG Wels's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 42% (+3.2 pts); Away win 35% → 32% (-3.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 41%; Away win 37% → 33%.",
  "fixture": 1567925,
  "home": "Austria Vienna (Am)",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4124,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.26",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4197,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 39% → 42% (+3.2 pts); Away win 35% → 32% (-3.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 37% → 41%; Away win 37% → 33%."
}